The Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears in Week 11 odds of NFL action on Sunday. The Lions are atop the NFC North with a 7-2 record while the Bears remain at the bottom at 3-7, but Chicago did get some good news this week when it was announced that quarterback Justin Fields would return to the lineup.
NFL odds have the Lions as 8-point favorites with the Over/Under listed at 48.5 for this showdown between division rivals. Here are my best free NFL picks for Bears vs. Lions on November 19.
Bears vs Lions odds
Bears vs Lions predictions
The Detroit Lions are rolling but I’m not sold on their defense, especially after giving up 38 points last Sunday for the second time in their last three games. They are 12th in the league in defensive EPA but just 20th in success rate, and they’ve benefited from playing against plenty of pathetic offenses.
The Lions have faced just four competent quarterbacks so far this season, and three of them shredded Detroit’s defense while Patrick Mahomes was held in check thanks to multiple drops from his receivers.
While the jury is still out on whether or not Justin Fields is a competent QB, he’s still a significant upgrade over Tyson Bagent, who had been starting for the Chicago Bears while Fields recovered from a thumb injury.
Fields did manage two consecutive impressive starts before his injury in Week 6, and the Lions struggle to defense against mobile quarterbacks.
While I think the Bears offense will show improvement with Fields, the Lions should also put up a ton of points. Jared Goff has the second-best passing grade in the league according to Pro Football Focus, and he’s at his best when playing at home and kept clean in the pocket. That shouldn’t be an issue here since the Lions do a great job in pass protection and Chicago ranks just 31st in pressure rate.
The Lions are also at full strength on offense after running back David Montgomery and interior linemen Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow returned to the field last week. With a fully healthy offense, the Lions dropped 41 points on the Chargers last week, and they should have no problem moving the ball against a Bears D that ranks 27th in defensive EPA.
Take the Over here.
My best bet: Over 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bears vs Lions same-game parlay
Over 47.5Justin Fields Over 48.5 rushing yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown Over 84.5 receiving yards
+435at DraftKings
If there’s a skill Fields excels at, it’s running the ball, and the Lions have a tendency to get burned by mobile QBs. Last year, Fields racked up an incredible 279 rushing yards on 23 carries in two games against Detroit.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is easily Goff’s favorite target, and he has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in six of his last seven games while coming off a career-high 156 receiving yards last week. He should go off against a Bears defense that ranks 31st in dropback EPA and gives up 298.2 passing yards per game on the road.
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