The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers each come into Thursday Night Football off losses despite each being favored by a touchdown.
Seattle stumbled against the New York Giants while San Francisco collapsed to the Arizona Cardinals, making this short turnaround a tricky one for these NFC West clubs.
Oddsmakers have the Niners tabbed as 3-point road favorites heading to always-loud Lumen Field.
I investigate the opening Week 6 NFL odds for Thursday Night Football and give my early leans, predictions, and NFL picks for Seahawks at 49ers on October 10.
Check out our 49ers vs. Seahawks live blog for real-time updates ahead of kickoff.
49ers vs Seahawks predictions
Early spread lean49ers -3 (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Thursday’s trip to Seattle puts the San Francisco 49ers in a tough schedule pinch. Due to opening the season on a Monday night in Week 1, San Francisco will be playing its sixth game in 31 days when the whistle blows on Thursday night.
There are concerns on defense, stemming from injuries on the short week, but the 49ers offense continues to rank among the league’s elite, ranking No. 8 in EPA per play with the passing playbook carrying the load.
Quarterback Brock Purdy is second in completed air yards per attempt and has the 49ers enjoying the fifth-highest success rate per dropback in the league. He’s been fantastic against the Seattle Seahawks in a short storybook career and faces a defense that’s had the curtain pulled back the past two games.
The Seahawks were ranking among the elite in advanced defensive stats to start the season but played popgun attacks led by bad QBs, like rookie Bo Nix, veteran Jacoby Brissett, and backup Skylar Thompson.
Seattle’s defensive validity has bottomed out versus the Detroit Lions and Giants, plummeting from No. 2 in EPA allowed per play in the opening three weeks to 31st in that advanced metric in the last two outings. However, injuries to several starters on defense have compounded those problems.
We’re seeing some San Francisco -3.5 lines show up on Monday morning and the field-goal spread is priced as high as Niners -3 (-120), indicating the hook is likely coming across the market soon. If you like the 49ers on the short week, get the -3 now.
Early Over/Under leanOver 47.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
If not for a goal-line fumble the Seahawks defense returned for a 100-yard TD, the 23 points allowed to the Giants offense would have been worse.
New York finished with 24 first downs and went 7-for-16 on third downs — a week removed from the Lions putting up 21 first downs and going 3-for-6 on third down snaps vs. Seattle. San Francisco is tied for the second-most first downs per game and boasts a third-down conversion rate of 46.6%, which sits fifth across the league.
The Niners defense hasn’t consistently complemented that attack. San Francisco is middle of the road in terms of EPA allowed per play and opponents’ success rate per snap, but things get dicey in the final 30 minutes.
Second-half stands are an issue for the 49ers, who have given up an average of more than 13 points in the closing two frames, including getting outscored 14-0 in the second half by Arizona this past weekend.
The Seahawks offense can strike quickly with plenty of playmakers and, for what it’s worth, Seattle jumps from 20th in 1H EPA per play to ninth in 2H EPA, averaging 11.3 points in the closing 30 minutes.
The extended forecast for Lumen Field doesn’t show any rain or wind and these NFC West foes have gone 2-0-1 O/U in their last three matchups
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In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
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